Diesel and Manual Cars Face a Shrinking Future
Vehicle Data Global (VDG) says manual transmission cars are declining even faster than diesel vehicles, with both at risk of disappearing from the new car market by 2030. The data specialist analysed millions of market data points and found that diesel market share has fallen sharply, while manual gearboxes are also losing ground because of changing model availability and shifting consumer demand.
So far this year, manual transmission cars account for just 13.7% of the market. Diesel has seen an even steeper long-term decline, with its market share falling by 92% since 2016.
VDG believes the cost of developing and producing manual gearboxes may soon outweigh demand, particularly as manufacturers focus more heavily on electrification and automatic drivetrains.
Decline Extends Beyond EV and Hybrid Growth
VDG said the fall in manual transmission sales is not solely the result of growing demand for hybrid and electric vehicles.
Even among petrol and diesel models where customers still have a choice of transmission, the share of manual cars has fallen significantly.
Key figure: among internal combustion engine car buyers, manual transmission share dropped from 55% in 2019 to 34% in 2025.
Manufacturer Economics
Ben Hermer, operations director at VDG, said the economics of maintaining manual transmission options are becoming increasingly difficult to justify. He pointed to the research and development, certification, and other overheads involved in developing and refining gearboxes, even where some demand remains.
Based on current trend data, VDG expects between 5% and 10% of cars to still be manual by 2030. However, manufacturers are likely to question whether maintaining manual gearbox programmes for a shrinking share of the market makes commercial sense, particularly as they manage the shift away from internal combustion engines and compete with new international entrants in the EV sector.
Vans Remain a Different Market
The picture remains different in the light commercial vehicle sector, where diesel powertrains and manual gearboxes continue to dominate.
Manual transmissions accounted for 63% of vans last year, compared with fewer than one in five passenger cars.
VDG said the traditional diesel-powered manual “motorway mile-muncher” that once dominated fleet and retail sales is rapidly disappearing from the market.
The company said the traditional diesel-powered manual “motorway mile-muncher” that once dominated fleet and retail sales is rapidly disappearing from the market.
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